Estimate annual honey production per hive based on your location, management level, hive type, and whether your colony is newly established or a mature hive.
A well-managed Langstroth hive in a good forage area can produce 25–100 lbs of surplus honey per year. First-year colonies rarely produce surplus — they focus on building comb and winter stores. Experienced beekeepers in favorable climates often see 60–80 lbs from strong established hives.
Bees need approximately 60 lbs of honey to survive a typical winter. Never harvest to the point of leaving stores below this threshold. In mild climates this number is lower; in cold northern winters it can be 80+ lbs. When in doubt, leave more.
The three biggest factors are forage availability (what flowers are blooming nearby and for how long), colony health and population size, and beekeeper management — catching swarms, managing space, and controlling varroa mites. Climate and hive type matter but are secondary to these three.